Deutsche Bank Optimistically Raises S&P 500 Forecast
Deutsche Bank raises its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,750 points, backed by strong corporate earnings and robust stock buybacks amid a backdrop of economic resilience.
Published September 14, 2024 - 00:09am
Deutsche Bank has recently elevated its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,750 points from the previous forecast of 5,500. This raise is largely attributed to the continued strength in corporate earnings, a rise in stock buybacks, and substantial inflows into the equity market, all bolstered by strong risk appetite among investors.
According to the Deutsche Bank strategists, S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to maintain a robust trajectory in the low double digits, a rate typical for periods outside of economic recessions. The bank's new target implies a 2.75% increase from the S&P 500's closing value of 5,595.76 on a recent Thursday.
The upward revision is also influenced by the heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts this year and the ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). These factors have significantly buoyed the index, with several brokerages revising their annual targets upwards. In fact, some analysts believe the S&P 500 could potentially end 2024 as high as 6,000 points.
Back in May, Deutsche Bank had already increased its year-end forecast to 5,500 points, banking on the robustness of corporate earnings to sustain equity valuations. Despite the market experiencing a temporary pullback in August due to fears of a weakening labor market and a de-rating of technology stocks, Deutsche Bank indicates that these concerns have now been allayed. The stabilization of August payrolls growth year-to-date has reassured investors.
Strategists led by Binky Chadha, Chief U.S. Equity and Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank, highlight several elements that will further strengthen the market. These include a shift from de-stocking to re-stocking, an uptick in capital expenditure outside of the technology sector, a broader recovery in manufacturing, and a rise in consumer confidence.
Additionally, share buybacks are expected to increase to about $1.2 trillion next year, up from the current $1 trillion. This growth in buybacks aligns with continued earnings growth, underpinning equity returns. The bank also notes that inflows into equities have been robust over the past four months, defying typical seasonal trends. This trend is predicted to continue, enhancing prospective corporate earnings and equity returns.
Moreover, Deutsche Bank maintains an optimistic outlook for earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies, forecasting $258 for 2024 and $285 for 2025. This expectation underscores the sustentative health of corporate fundamentals.
The broader economic landscape also appears favorable. The analysts at Deutsche Bank foresee a transition towards restocking, increased capital expenditures beyond the technology sector, a manufacturing recovery, and improved consumer confidence, all implying economic resilience.
Despite recent downturns attributed to valuation decreases in mega-cap growth and technology stocks, along with concerns over the labor market, the situation appears to be stabilizing. Investment positions are now aligning with the sector's slowing earnings growth, and labor market growth is returning to steady pre-pandemic rates.
Looking ahead, the focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. election. Historically, markets tend to decline starting in early October, only to rally post-election, assuming a clear outcome. Deutsche Bank's analysts remain positive, maintaining their EPS forecast and highlighting the strong equity demand-supply balance as a support for valuations.
While remaining neutral on mega-cap growth and technology stocks, the bank is overweight on Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, and Materials. It maintains a neutral stance on Industrials and Energy sectors and has moved Utilities back to a neutral position.
In conclusion, Deutsche Bank's upgraded forecast suggests more than just short-term gains. The outlook points to robust and broadening earnings growth, supported by various economic indicators. As firms continue aggressive buyback programs and inflows remain strong, the S&P 500's upward trajectory appears sustainable.