Will Ukraine Export Azeri Gas to Europe?

President Zelensky's recent statements reveal Ukraine's strategic plans to bolster European energy supplies with Azeri gas amidst complex geopolitical dynamics.

Published January 26, 2025 - 00:01am

4 minutes read
Ukraine
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In a significant development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced Ukraine's readiness to facilitate the transit of Azerbaijani gas to Europe. This declaration comes at a time when European energy markets are seeking alternatives to Russian gas, exacerbated by recent interruptions in Russian gas supplies through Ukrainian routes. In a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Zelensky outlined the discussions held with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, emphasizing Azerbaijan's substantial gas production capabilities.

Azerbaijan currently produces around 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which approximately 14-15 billion cubic meters meet domestic needs, leaving a significant export potential of about 25 billion cubic meters. Despite lingering logistical concerns raised by experts like Aura Sabadus from ICIS, who caution that Azerbaijan might lack the capacity for large-scale supply increases due to current production constraints, the Ukrainian leader remains optimistic about using Ukraine's infrastructure for gas transit. Zelensky stressed, "We will not let the Russians profit. But will we let the Azerbaijanis earn? With pleasure. Will we help the Slovaks? With pleasure."

The stakes in Europe are high, as countries like Slovakia and Hungary have lodged complaints following disruptions in Russian gas flow. The geopolitical complications in Moldova, particularly in the Transnistrian region, further complicate the regional energy dynamics. Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria has been hit hard by gas cuts from Russia, prompting urgent calls for alternative energy solutions.

Additionally, there is a diplomatic dimension to the situation. Ukraine's rejection of extending Russian gas transit aligns with its broader political strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. The move could strengthen Ukraine's geopolitical standing in Eastern Europe and help forge stronger ties with Azerbaijan, which has been attempting to cement its role as a key energy partner for the EU.

While the energy talks focus on gas supply, President Zelensky also faces diplomatic challenges in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. His call for comprehensive international negotiations involving the US, EU, and Russia underscores the intertwining of energy security and geopolitical stability. Despite former US President Donald Trump's claims of rapidly ending the war, Zelensky insists on Ukraine's inclusion in any peace discussions, stating that only such holistic engagement will yield effective results.

This burgeoning energy collaboration between Ukraine and Azerbaijan is not without skepticism. Sabadus highlights concerns of potential volume swaps, where Russian gas could be rebranded as Azerbaijani, casting doubts on the authenticity of these deals. Nevertheless, the pursuit of Azerbaijani gas transport reflects Ukraine's commitment to diversifying European energy sources away from Russia.

Zelensky's negotiations also resonate within Moldova, where President Sandu expressed deep appreciation for Ukraine's role in maintaining regional stability. Sandu affirmed, "Ukraine's courage guarantees peace in Moldova. Your courage and sacrifice have protected Moldova from war." This bilateral cooperation further complicates Russia's efforts to destabilize Moldova by supporting pro-Russian factions within the country.

The broader implications of this proposed transit route could reshape energy alliances across Europe. If successful, it might precede further infrastructure developments, enhancing Ukraine's position as a pivot in regional energy distribution. However, the feasibility of such grand ambitions hinges on overcoming existing infrastructural limitations and political barriers.

In conclusion, Zelensky's proposal to channel Azeri gas through Ukraine marks a pivotal step in Europe's energy diversification journey. Though fraught with challenges, the endeavor holds the promise of not just mitigating energy shortfalls but also fostering political alliances crucial for the region's long-term stability. As Europe grapples with these developments, the geopolitical chessboard continues to evolve, with Ukraine strategically placed at its core.

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