Gaza Ceasefire Dilemma: Netanyahu's Coalition at Risk

As Biden pushes for a ceasefire in Gaza, Netanyahu faces internal opposition, with some coalition members threatening to quit and the search for an alternative to Hamas governance remains elusive.

Published June 03, 2024 - 00:06am

9 minutes read
Israel
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is confronted with a precarious decision as President Joe Biden's ceasefire proposal for the Gaza conflict challenges the stability of his government. Netanyahu's rigid stance on the dismantlement of Hamas's military and governance capabilities as a prerequisite for peace starkly contrasts with Biden's multi-phase ceasefire strategy, envisioning a swift Israeli withdrawal from densely populated Gaza sectors, an exchange of prisoners and hostages, and substantial humanitarian aid influx.

The proposal, while received tentatively by Hamas as a constructive start, has led to rifts within Netanyahu's coalition due to the far-right factions led by ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who see the acceptance of such deal as a potential defeat and total capitulation to Hamas. Netanyahu's coalition, already facing opposition within the Likud party and reliant on its centrist partners like ex-general Benny Gantz, is now on the brink of collapse over the ceasefire deliberations.

Complications surge as Israel seeks to form a 'governing alternative' to Hamas, a tactic previously attempted and proven futile, and as regional dynamics intensify with military exchanges on Israel's northern border. Despite the fracturing political backdrop, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog advocates for the redeemer of hostages principle, implying state support for negotiations. Meanwhile, debates on opening the strategic Rafah crossing and establishing a non-Hamas governance structure reflect the labyrinthine nature of reaching a sustainable solution.

Amid protests, political threats, and the backdrop of a devastating human toll with thousands of Palestinian casualties reported by Gaza's Health Ministry, the United States continues its diplomatic engagement, prompting all parties to seize the moment to end hostilities. Yet doubts linger over the right-wing Israeli government's endorsement of any deal, leaving the future of Gaza and the broader region rife with uncertainty.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is confronted with a precarious decision as President Joe Biden's ceasefire proposal for the Gaza conflict challenges the stability of his government. Netanyahu's rigid stance on the dismantlement of Hamas's military and governance capabilities as a prerequisite for peace starkly contrasts with Biden's multi-phase ceasefire strategy, envisioning a swift Israeli withdrawal from densely populated Gaza sectors, an exchange of prisoners and hostages, and substantial humanitarian aid influx.

The proposal, while received tentatively by Hamas as a constructive start, has led to rifts within Netanyahu's coalition due to the far-right factions led by ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who see the acceptance of such deal as a potential defeat and total capitulation to Hamas. Netanyahu's coalition, already facing opposition within the Likud party and reliant on its centrist partners like ex-general Benny Gantz, is now on the brink of collapse over the ceasefire deliberations.

Complications surge as Israel seeks to form a 'governing alternative' to Hamas, a tactic previously attempted and proven futile, and as regional dynamics intensify with military exchanges on Israel's northern border. Despite the fracturing political backdrop, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog advocates for the redeemer of hostages principle, implying state support for negotiations. Meanwhile, debates on opening the strategic Rafah crossing and establishing a non-Hamas governance structure reflect the labyrinthine nature of reaching a sustainable solution.

Amid protests, political threats, and the backdrop of a devastating human toll with thousands of Palestinian casualties reported by Gaza's Health Ministry, the United States continues its diplomatic engagement, prompting all parties to seize the moment to end hostilities. Yet doubts linger over the right-wing Israeli government's endorsement of any deal, leaving the future of Gaza and the broader region rife with uncertainty.

As negotiations continue, international actors have geared up their diplomatic efforts to support a resolution. Egypt and Qatar, traditional brokers in Israel-Hamas affairs, have offered to mediate the conflict, suggesting plans for rebuilding Gaza's infrastructure devastated by the recent bombings. Their propositions have included long-term economic support programs intended to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and rebuild the public's trust in a prospective governance system. However, the commitment of these nations to enforce any agreement remains to be seen, with skepticism running high among Israeli hardliners.

On the Palestinian front, the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas remains a key player amid the crisis. The Authority, which controls the West Bank and is considered more moderate than Hamas, has been seemingly sidelined in the recent hostilities. Efforts to engage the Palestinian Authority in the peace process could potentially garner wider regional and international support, but it also raises questions about the feasibility of a unified Palestinian governance and representation under the prevailing conditions.

The international community, spearheaded by the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has urged for an immediate cessation of violence and the protection of civilians. Additionally, the European Union has emphasized the need for a two-state solution, reiterating its position that sustainable peace can only be achieved through the coexistence of Israel and a Palestinian state. Highlighting the complex interplay of considerations, the European body has called upon all factions to demonstrate restraint and responsibility towards their populations.

Within Israel, public sentiment remains divided. The latest polls reveal a nation polarized not just by ideology, but also by the fatigue of perennial insecurity and conflict. Some Israelis advocate for a decisive military campaign to eliminate the Hamas threat once and for to all, while others plead for a diplomatic resolution that could pave the way for lasting peace with their Palestinian neighbours. The political discourse is mired by the memories of past failed peace initiatives, leaving many to question what different approach could this time forge a long-term resolution.

Humanitarian organizations, including the International Red Cross, have underscored the critical conditions in Gaza, where health facilities, water supplies, and infrastructure have been severely damaged or destroyed. They warn of the dire consequences should the ceasefire not be implemented soon, highlighting the urgency for the cessation of the aerial bombardments and ground attacks that have claimed civilian lives and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. Global calls for both sides to respect international humanitarian law and ensure the flow of emergency aid into Gaza have intensified as the conflict drags on.

The ultimate question that looms over the current political deadlock is whether the conflicting parties can overcome decades of animosity to broker a ceasefire that could lay the groundwork for a wider peace. History is burdened with prior hostilities, truces, and recurrences of violence, casting a long shadow over current efforts. Nevertheless, with the world's eyes fixed on the region, and mounting pressures from the international community, a window of opportunity for peaceful resolution exists, if only the will to seize it can be found amid the cacophony of war and politics.

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