India at Crossroads: Modi's Historic Third Term Win

As votes are counted for the world's largest electoral process, Narendra Modi eyes a historic third term, amidst controversy and intense political rivalries.

Published June 05, 2024 - 00:06am

7 minutes read
India
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India began counting more than 640 million votes on Tuesday in the largest electoral process worldwide, expected to grant Prime Minister Narendra Modi a third term after a decade in power.

Widely considered a referendum on Modi's governance, the election results could mark only the second time a leader holds power in India for a third term, following Jawaharlal Nehru, the nation's first Prime Minister.

Major TV channels' polls predict a comfortable victory for Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over a broad opposition alliance led by the Congress party.

Despite the massive eligible voter count of nearly 970 million, turnout sees a slight decrease from the last general elections, averaging around 66% during the seven-phase polls.

The heatwave across northern India, resulting in temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius and the deaths of 33 election officials in Uttar Pradesh alone, partially explains the lower voter turnout.

Intrigues mar the opposition as Modi's rivals face internal rifts and politically-driven criminal cases aiming to dismantle any competition. Arvind Kejriwal, a key leader in an alliance against Modi, returned to jail shortly after the close of voting.

Human rights organizations and Modi's opponents warn of the rising threats to democracy in India, with research center 'Freedom House' indicating the increasing use of government institutions by BJP against political adversaries.

The stakes are high as the nation watches the outcome of the 2023 general elections which commenced with the world's largest exercise of democracy. If the predictions hold true, Modi's victory would reinforce his vision of a Hindu-majority India and could significantly shape the nation's policies and international standing for years to come.

Modi's tenure thus far has been marked by significant economic reforms and development drives, such as the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the push for a 'Digital India'. However, his government has also faced immense criticism for the handling of internal issues like the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which sparked widespread protests and raised international concerns around human rights.

Despite the criticisms, Modi and the BJP boast a dedicated voter base, rallying around nationalistic sentiments and the prime minister's personal charisma. The BJP's extensive ground campaign, combined with an aggressive digital outreach, has left the opposition struggling to keep pace. The Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi, has been attempting to recalibrate its strategy, focusing on social welfare schemes and economic growth promises. Still, electoral math remains a challenge for the historically dominant party.

A potential third term for Modi means continuity in foreign policy, where he has worked to elevate India's global standing. Modi's diplomatic efforts have seen advancements in ties with both Western and regional powers, advocating a multipolar global order and attempting to navigate the complex geopolitics of relations with China and Pakistan. Yet, the opposition and some analysts warn of a growing tilt towards authoritarianism, expressing concerns over press freedom and civil liberties.

Ahead of the election, controversies involving electronic voting machines (EVMs) resurfaced, with sporadic reports of malfunctions and accusations of tampering. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has repeatedly reassured the public of the integrity of the electoral process, but these assurances have done little to quell the skepticism among parts of the electorate.

India's economic performance is another focal point in the elections. While the country has shown growth, it has been marred by employment concerns and the impact of COVID-19. The government's recent budget aimed at boosting growth through infrastructure spending and supporting domestic manufacturing under the 'Make in India' initiative. However, the opposition criticizes what they call ineffective job creation strategies and a mismanagement of the economic downturn.

Civil society's voice has been increasingly important in this election, with numerous grassroots organizations and movements raising awareness about key issues ranging from environmental concerns to social justice. These groups are advocating for more inclusive governance and scrutinizing the long-term implications of a potential concentration of power.

The world is closely watching India's democratic process, not only as a testament to the nation's resilient electoral system but also for clues to India's future direction under Modi's potential third term. The repercussions of this election will undeniably ripple through geopolitical alignments, economic strategies, and the well-being of the world's largest democracy.

As counting continues in the vast expanse of the Indian subcontinent, anticipation and apprehension hang in the air. Whether BJP maintains its dominance or the opposition stages an unexpected comeback, the 2023 elections have showcased the vibrancy of Indian democracy and the enduring spirit of its people amidst challenges. The results will soon reveal the path that the nation is set to embark upon in the near future.

International observers and local political analysts alike await the final result, which is poised to not just decide the immediate political landscape, but also influence social dynamics and economic trajectories in not just India, but also in the region and possibly across the global sphere.

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