The likelihood that Democrats will win the White House in three months improved significantly this week when Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the party's 2024 presumptive nominee. Despite this, Republican Donald Trump still holds an electoral advantage as he only needs to flip two or three states that went Democratic in 2020 to clinch victory once again.

University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center director Barry Burden notes that Democrats were initially clinging to three 'blue wall' states in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—as their most likely swing state path to victory. Harris campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon has emphasized the importance of not only these states but also Sun Belt states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, where Harris has advantages with young voters, Black voters, and Latino voters.

Harris has already made notable gains in polls, particularly among demographics that had soured on Biden. For example, Harris has increased her share of Black registered voters from 59% to 69%, and Hispanic voters from 45% to 57% since taking over the ticket. This surge in enthusiasm is mirrored in a Wall Street Journal poll where 81% of Harris voters expressed enthusiasm compared to just 37% for Biden a month earlier.

However, Donald Trump remains competitive. A series of state-specific polls shows the narrow margin between the two candidates in critical battlegrounds. For instance, Emerson College polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin indicate Harris is polling three to four percentage points higher than Biden did just a week earlier. Yet, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight averages still show her trailing Trump by 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a tight race ahead.

The race dynamics are particularly interesting in states like Pennsylvania, where Harris faces unique challenges due to her past comments on critical issues like fracking. Trump holds a 3.6-point margin over Harris in Pennsylvania, emphasizing the necessity for Harris to win this state to secure the presidency. Similarly, Michigan and Wisconsin also remain tight contests, with Trump leading by small margins.

Adding to the complexity, Harris has been able to boost Democratic enthusiasm and fundraising significantly since becoming the nominee. A batch of new polls found that Harris and Trump are neck and neck in key swing states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These polls reveal economic concerns to be the leading issue among voters, followed by immigration and abortion. Voters focused on the economy and immigration tend to support Trump, while those prioritizing abortion lean toward Harris.

Both candidates have their thorny issues to navigate. Harris is working to energize the Democratic base while avoiding significant losses in rural and swing areas. On the other hand, Trump capitalizes on steady support from his core base while aiming to flip key states that supported Biden in 2020. According to various analyses, the electoral map leans slightly in Trump's favor with several scenarios presenting him an easier path to 270 electoral votes.

Even polling trends underscore this uphill battle for Harris. The most recent nine-state surveys, including those conducted by Redfield and Wilton and Emerson College, consistently show Harris either trailing or tying with Trump in critical battlegrounds like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Additionally, Harris has to contend with the honeymoon effect of Biden's exit, as Republicans warn their supporters not to underestimate her initial surge in polling.

Despite this, Harris' favorability ratings are higher than Trump's in several key states. Still, both candidates are underwater in terms of overall voter satisfaction, highlighting the contentious and polarized nature of the upcoming election. Harris' candidacy has indeed changed the dynamics of the race, giving Democrats hope for mobilizing a diverse coalition that Biden struggled to fully activate.

In summary, while Harris' path to the White House involves significant hurdles, particularly in pivotal swing states, her campaign has injected renewed enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Trump, meanwhile, remains a formidable opponent with clear advantages in certain battlegrounds. The coming months will be critical as both candidates vie to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes, making each state's outcome potentially decisive in this tightly contested race.